The rulebook everyone's been citing hypothetically is finally being written — and both sides want the courts to wait for it.
CFTC's event-contract rulemaking lands at OIRA — and freezes a federal appeal
The short answer
The CFTC's long-awaited event-contract rulemaking is under review at OIRA. Kalshi argues the incoming rules should pause its Ninth Circuit rehearing — Nevada's attorney calls that a delay tactic with regulatory uncertainty as the product.
In this article
The CFTC's proposed rules for event contracts — including the sports-related contracts at the center of the Kalshi litigation — have reached the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, the White House gatekeeper that reviews major federal rulemakings before publication.
The procedural chess
Kalshi moved to delay its Ninth Circuit en banc rehearing, arguing the pending rulemaking could moot or reshape the questions the court agreed to revisit. Nevada's counsel opposed, characterizing the request as an attempt to stall a case while regulatory ground shifts underneath it. The CFTC under new leadership has signaled an intent to write rules that give prediction markets clear federal lanes — whether those lanes end at the casino door is the entire dispute.
Illustrative example
| Party | Position | Endgame |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Pause the rehearing until CFTC rules land | Federal rules that preempt state gambling law on event contracts |
| Nevada / state AGs | Keep the rehearing on schedule | Sports contracts treated as state-regulated wagers |
| CFTC | Publish the rulemaking through OIRA review | Defined federal lanes for prediction markets |
Why OIRA review matters
OIRA review is the last stop before proposed text goes public — typically 30 to 90 days. Whatever emerges will define 'gaming' exclusions in the Commodity Exchange Act for the first time with real specificity, and it will either hand states ammunition or take it away. Every pending case — Ninth Circuit, Third Circuit, the Missouri letter — is now effectively litigating in the shadow of an unpublished document.
The rehearing fight itself is covered in Kalshi's Ninth Circuit battle; the legal foundations in federal gambling laws and the product differences in prediction markets vs. sportsbooks.
