European Lotteries wants prediction markets inside the fence — not around it

The prediction-market jurisdiction war is no longer American. European Lotteries, the Brussels umbrella body representing national lotteries across the continent, issued a statement this week calling for 'coherent regulatory approach' as prediction markets expand — specifically demanding they develop within Europe's existing regulatory architecture rather than around it.

The language is diplomatic but the target is clear: 'the regulatory treatment of prediction markets should depend on the legal characteristics, economic substance, and associated risks of the relevant products, rather than on the terminology used to market or describe them.' Translation: calling a bet a 'contract' doesn't change what it is — which is exactly the argument US state regulators are making in courtrooms from Nevada to Ohio.

Why Europe is weighing in now

• Prediction markets' visibility has grown sharply — the US legal fight has made the product category visible to regulators worldwide.
• European gambling law is national, not federal — a patchwork that prediction markets could theoretically arbitrage across member states, the same arbitrage state US regulators are fighting domestically.
• National lotteries hold regulated monopolies or privileged positions in most European markets — prediction markets operating outside that architecture represent both a competitive and a regulatory threat.
• The EL statement doesn't call for a ban — it calls for regulation within existing frameworks, which is a demand for licensed integration, not exclusion.

The parallel is structural

The European and American fights are the same question wearing different clothes: is an event contract a financial instrument or a wager? In the US, the CFTC's rulemaking at OIRA will help answer it federally while courts sort jurisdiction. In Europe, the answer depends on whether member-state gambling authorities or EU financial regulators claim the product first. The EL's early intervention suggests lotteries want the gambling-law answer — and they want it established before the market grows past the point where regulators can still shape it.

The European position echoes the domestic fight tracked in prediction markets vs. sportsbooks, the CFTC's pending rulemaking, and the Sixth Circuit ruling that opened the enforcement era.